It’s officially Super Bowl week, which brings some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that we have just one more football game left this year. The good news is that it’s the best game of the entire season (or at least it’s supposed to be). Since there is just the one game, that gives everybody time to really dive deep into it. Instead of trying to get a grasp of 16 games in one week, we get to devote all of our attention to just one. And that leads me to the content of this article, which is some prop bets for the big game. Below I have identified 15 bets for the actual on-field game (I will be discussing the novelty prop bets later) that I like. I’ve organized them in ascending order of payout, meaning when you get to the end (if you make it that far) it might get a little wild. So, here they are, my favorite bets for Super Bowl 57.
Under 5.5 total sacks -132
A lot of attention is going to be paid to the battle in the trenches. Both of these teams possess great offensive lines and outstanding defensive lines. I mean, these teams finished first and second in sacks this season. But I’m trusting the offenses to keep the sack totals low. The defensive lines will certainly have an impact given the elite players on each squad, but I like both Mahomes and Hurts’s ability to escape when pressured. Also, with two weeks for each offense to get ready for the game, expect both teams to be prepared for the pass rush and have plays in place to neutralize that aspect of their opponent’s game.
Boston Scott over 9.5 rushing yards -122
Despite the favorable odds, this is one of my more out-there bets. Scott had just 15 rushing yards all regular season, so him nearly reaching that total in this game seems unlikely. But, he’s surpassed that mark comfortably in each of the Eagles’ playoff games, rushing for a combined 53 yards. He’s gotten six carries in each game, which certainly shows a level of trust that the team has in him. And with the way he’s been running lately, he may only need two or three touches to reach double digits, which I’m fully expecting to happen.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 38.5 receiving yards -114
The first time I looked over the litany of bets for the game there was no MVS to be seen. But that was not the case the second time around, so I gladly will take the over on his receiving yards total. He had his best game as a Chief against the Bengals, and I think that is something that he can build on in this game. Plus, he doesn’t even need to get anywhere near the 116 yards he racked up in the AFC Championship Game for this bet to hit. The Eagles have a very good secondary but if they focus most of their attention on Travis Kelce (which they absolutely should) then I could see Valdes-Scantling getting a decent amount of targets, like the eight he got last game. And, even if he doesn’t see a ton of targets, his speed and deep-threat ability give him the chance to get 39 yards on a single catch, which is some good insurance on this bet.
Jalen Hurts over 31.5 pass attempts -114
It’s hard to take much away from the Eagles’ two playoff wins because they were both fairly uncompetitive. In those games, Hurts threw for 24 and 25 passes, which may be the reason his line for pass attempts is so low for the Super Bowl. If we go back to the regular season, Hurts had 31 or more pass attempts in the last four games he played. As the season went on, Hurts was trusted to drop back more and more, which likely had a lot to do with his impressive development as a thrower. The Eagles will no doubt want to establish their dominance on the ground, but if the game is a tight one, then Hurts may be called on to make some plays with his arm, something he is more than capable of doing.
Devonta Smith longest reception over 23.5 -114
Smith is not the number one target on Philadelphia (that would be A.J. Brown), but that actually may work in his favor for this bet. Brown has been one of the best wideouts in the game this year and will certainly draw a ton of attention. But Smith isn’t too far behind and should be able to benefit from less attention. But, really, all he needs is one catch to cash this bet, although it has to be a fairly long one. Smith isn’t necessarily the receiver that the Eagles draw up the deep shots to all the time but he has a knack for producing some big plays. The catch he made (or technically didn’t make) against the 49ers on fourth down early in the game is the type of play that sticks with me. All it takes is one scramble drill where Smith gets open down the sideline for him to get those 24 yards he needs to make this bet a winner.
Both teams to complete first pass attempt -105
This one is a pretty close call, which makes sense given the near-even odds, and while I don’t have any statistical analysis to back this one up, I do have a theory. For one, I think the Eagles are going to want to make things as easy as possible for Hurts to start out the game. He’ll be playing in his first Super Bowl and although he seems incredibly poised, he may be nervous. Making his first read an easy one would go a long way toward settling him down and allowing him to have his best game. The Eagles also like to run RPOs, which could mean that his first pass attempt is more wide-open if he makes the right read. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is as good as it gets at the quarterback position, so I would never bet against him completing a pass. But it would also be a smart idea for the Chiefs to start out with something simple and easy for him to get the ball rolling on offense and not allow the Eagles’ defense to make a big play right at the start.
Jerrick McKinnon 25+ receiving yards +104
McKinnon hasn’t been nearly as involved in the passing game lately, recording just two catches for 17 yards so far in the playoffs. But things always change in the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs have had two weeks to figure out how to incorporate him into the offense more, as they did in the regular season. There’s also the threat of the Eagles’ pass rush, which could lead to quicker, shorter passes and more checkdowns, both of which are areas where McKinnon can succeed. And if this game is close or the Chiefs are behind, they’ll need to lean more on the passing game which should lead to more snaps and yards for McKinnon.
Hurts to score a TD +105
Earlier, I mentioned how Hurts may be called on to carry the team with his arm but, at the end of the day, we all know he’s still going to use his legs. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in each of the Eagles’ postseason games and has scored a touchdown in seven of his last nine games (postseason and regular season combined). When the Eagles get near the goal line, there is not a more dangerous weapon than Hurts’s ability to run. Whether it comes on a scramble, designed run, or quarterback sneak, I expect to see Hurts reach the end zone on Sunday.
Shortest TD over 1.5 yards +152
This almost goes directly against my Hurts touchdown bet because he is so good at scoring on those sneaks from the one-yard line. But it’s pretty much a coin-flip chance of whether we get a one-yard score or not, so I’ll take the odds. Really, this is more of a bet on both offenses to score before they get that close to the end zone. Both offenses are high-powered and great at finishing drives, so I expect neither team to find themselves in a scenario where they need to score a one-yard touchdown.
Haason Reddick to record a sack/Eagles win +190
I always like to look at some sort of combination like this that can tell the story of the game. It’s a bit harder to do with a defensive player but I really like this bet. Reddick is an incredibly disruptive force on defense, as we all saw with his performance against the 49ers. If he is able to wreak havoc on the Chiefs’ offensive line and bring Mahomes to the ground, then it could mean that the Eagles are having some success in this game on defense. Obviously, either of these things could happen without the other, but I think the Eagles’ pass rush is their most important key to victory in this game, and Reddick might be the most important player.
Kelce to score a touchdown/Chiefs win +220
I’m surprised that it’s taken me this long to mention the Kelce Bowl, considering brothers Travis and Jason will become the first siblings to face each other in the Super Bowl. That isn’t why I’m expecting the Chiefs’ Kelce to score, but it would make it even more interesting. Last year, I had a similar bet of Cooper Kupp to score and the Rams to win and it hit, so I’m anticipating the same here. Mainly, I don’t see the Chiefs winning without Kelce scoring given how important he is to this offense. The Eagles’ one possible weakness on defense is their linebackers as well, so look for the Chiefs to exploit that mismatch when they get into the red zone.
Chris Jones to record first KC sack +320
This one is pretty self-explanatory, but I’ll still explain it myself. Jones was one of the best players at any position this year and finally notched his first postseason sack last round with two against the Bengals. He was the most impactful player on the field in that game and while he will have a much more difficult matchup in front of him in this game, he’s still capable of making some plays. There’s also a chance that the Eagles don’t give up too many sacks given their elite offensive line and Hurts’s mobility, so it may end up being the case that Jones gets the only sack of the day for the Chiefs. At the end of the day, I’m betting on a premier player to do what he’s best at and disrupt the game so I like my odds.
Mahomes first to reach 10 rushing yards +1300
This is another bet that isn’t necessarily backed by statistics, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Mahomes wasn’t very mobile last game due to his ankle injury, but he still used his legs when it mattered most, showing that he can still run when needed. Plus, his ankle will be two weeks healthier, which may mean he’s more capable of scrambling. The Chiefs’ haven’t really had much success on the ground anyway, so if they get the ball first all it’s going to take is some pressure from the defensive line and Mahomes could escape and fins himself with some open grass, leading to him being the first player to notch double-digit rushing yards.
Jaylen Watson to record the first interception +1800
I trust both quarterbacks in this game to take care of the ball fairly well, meaning there may just be one interception in the game. And if there is, Watson makes the most sense to grab it. The rookie has recorded an interception in both playoff games this season, meaning he has a pick in 100 percent of his postseason games. That number is certainly going to go down at some point, but it might not be until next season. I would expect Hurts to make a mistake before Mahomes, and Watson could just be in the right place at the right time to capitalize on that mistake.
Reddick to win SB MVP +3400
I’m not going to spend too much time on this one because it’s definitely a longshot. Most times the Super Bowl MVP goes to the winning quarterback, but we have seen cases where a player at a different position can stake their claim to the award. I’d argue that Hurts wouldn’t have won the MVP of either of the Eagles’ two playoff wins, and the award for the NFC Championship Game almost definitely would have gone to Reddick. All it takes for a defensive player to win the award is to make one or two huge plays, which we know Reddick can do. If Hurts has just a decent game and the Eagles win, it will open up the MVP for someone else, and that’s where Reddick could potentially come in.
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